This book is based on lectures given at Yale in 1971-1981 to students prepared with a course in measure-theoretic probability. It contains one technical innovation-probability distributions in which the total probability is infinite. Such improper distributions arise embarras­ singly frequently in Bayes theory, especially in establishing correspondences between Bayesian and Fisherian techniques. Infinite probabilities create interesting complications in defining conditional probability and limit concepts. The main results are theoretical, probabilistic conclusions derived from probabilistic assumptions. A useful theory requires rules for constructing and interpreting probabilities. Probabilities are computed from similarities, using a formalization of the idea that the future will probably be like the past. Probabilities are objectively derived from similarities, but similarities are sUbjective judgments of individuals. Of course the theorems remain true in any interpretation of probability that satisfies the formal axioms. My colleague David Potlard helped a lot, especially with Chapter 13. Dan Barry read proof. vii Contents CHAPTER 1 Theories of Probability 1. 0. Introduction 1 1. 1. Logical Theories: Laplace 1 1. 2. Logical Theories: Keynes and Jeffreys 2 1. 3. Empirical Theories: Von Mises 3 1. 4. Empirical Theories: Kolmogorov 5 1. 5. Empirical Theories: Falsifiable Models 5 1. 6. Subjective Theories: De Finetti 6 7 1. 7. Subjective Theories: Good 8 1. 8. All the Probabilities 10 1. 9. Infinite Axioms 11 1. 10. Probability and Similarity 1. 11. References 13 CHAPTER 2 Axioms 14 2. 0. Notation 14 2. 1. Probability Axioms 14 2. 2.

An English translation now joins the Russian and Spanish versions. It is based on the newly revised fifth edition of the German version of the book. The original edition has become very popular as a learning and reference source with easy to follow recipes and cross references for scientists in fields such as engineering, chemistry and the life sciences. Little mathematical background is required of the reader and some important topics, like the logarithm, are dealt with in the preliminaries preceding chapter one. The usefulness of the book as a reference is enhanced by a number of convenient tables and by references to other tables and methods, both in the text and in the bibliography. The English edition contains more material than the German original. I am most grateful to all who have in conversations, letters or reviews suggested improvements in or criticized earlier editions. Comments and suggestions will continue to be welcome. We are especially grateful to Mrs. Dorothy Aeppli of St. Paul, Minnesota, for providing numerous valuable comments during the preparation of the English manuscript. The author and the translator are responsible for any remaining faults and imperfections. I welcome any suggestions for improvement. My greatest personal gratitude goes to the translator, Mr. Zenon Reynaro­ wych, whose skills have done much to clarify the text, and to Springer-Verlag.

Like many other scientists, I have long been interested in history. I enjoy reading about the minutiae of its daily unfolding: the coinage, food, clothes, games, literature and habits which characterize a people. I am carried away by the broad sweep of its major events: the wars, famines, migrations, reforms, political swings and scientific advances which shape a society. I know that historians value autobiographical accounts as part of the basic material from which the stuff of history is distilled; this should apply no less to statistical than to political or social history. Modem statistics is a relatively young science; it was while pondering this fact sometime in 1980 that I realized that many of the pioneers of our field could still be called upon to tell their stories. If, however, biographical material about these eminent statisticians was not gathered, then one might lose the chance to gain insight into the origins of many an important statistical development. The remarkable experience of these colleagues could not be readily duplicated. Fired by these thoughts, I took it upon myself to plan the framework of this book. In it, eminent statisticians (probabilists are included under this title) would be invited to sketch their lives, explain how they had become interested in probability and· statistics, give an account of their major contributions, and possibly hazard some predictions about the future of the subject.

Roger D. Werking Head, Attitude Determination and Control Section National Aeronautics and Space Administration/ Goddard Space Flight Center Extensiye work has been done for many years in the areas of attitude determination, attitude prediction, and attitude control. During this time, it has been difficult to obtain reference material that provided a comprehensive overview of attitude support activities. This lack of reference material has made it difficult for those not intimately involved in attitude functions to become acquainted with the ideas and activities which are essential to understanding the various aspects of spacecraft attitude support. As a result, I felt the need for a document which could be used by a variety of persons to obtain an understanding of the work which has been done in support of spacecraft attitude objectives. It is believed that this book, prepared by the Computer Sciences Corporation under the able direction of Dr. James Wertz, provides this type of reference. This book can serve as a reference for individuals involved in mission planning, attitude determination, and attitude dynamics; an introductory textbook for stu­ dents and professionals starting in this field; an information source for experimen­ ters or others involved in spacecraft-related work who need information on spacecraft orientation and how it is determined, but who have neither the time nor the resources to pursue the varied literature on this subject; and a tool for encouraging those who could expand this discipline to do so, because much remains to be done to satisfy future needs.

Probability measures on algebraic-topological structures such as topological semi­ groups, groups, and vector spaces have become of increasing importance in recent years for probabilists interested in the structural aspects of the theory as well as for analysts aiming at applications within the scope of probability theory. In order to obtain a natural framework for a first systematic presentation of the most developed part of the work done in the field we restrict ourselves to prob­ ability measures on locally compact groups. At the same time we stress the non­ Abelian aspect. Thus the book is concerned with a set of problems which can be regarded either from the probabilistic or from the harmonic-analytic point of view. In fact, it seems to be the synthesis of these two viewpoints, the initial inspiration coming from probability and the refined techniques from harmonic analysis which made this newly established subject so fascinating. The goal of the presentation is to give a fairly complete treatment of the central limit problem for probability measures on a locally compact group. In analogy to the classical theory the discussion is centered around the infinitely divisible probability measures on the group and their relationship to the convergence of infinitesimal triangular systems.

In this book I have attempted to trace the development of numerical analysis during the period in which the foundations of the modern theory were being laid. To do this I have had to exercise a certain amount of selectivity in choosing and in rejecting both authors and papers. I have rather arbitrarily chosen, in the main, the most famous mathematicians of the period in question and have concentrated on their major works in numerical analysis at the expense, perhaps, of other lesser known but capable analysts. This selectivity results from the need to choose from a large body of literature, and from my feeling that almost by definition the great masters of mathematics were the ones responsible for the most significant accomplishments. In any event I must accept full responsibility for the choices. I would particularly like to acknowledge my thanks to Professor Otto Neugebauer for his help and inspiration in the preparation of this book. This consisted of many friendly discussions that I will always value. I should also like to express my deep appreciation to the International Business Machines Corporation of which I have the honor of being a Fellow and in particular to Dr. Ralph E. Gomory, its Vice-President for Research, for permitting me to undertake the writing of this book and for helping make it possible by his continuing encouragement and support.

“An elegantly written, introductory overview of the field, with a near perfect choice of what to include and what not, enlivened in places by historical tidbits and made eminently readable throughout by crisp language. It has succeeded in doing the near-impossible—it has made a subject which is generally inhospitable to nonspecialists because of its ‘family jargon’ appear nonintimidating even to a beginning graduate student.” (The Journal of the Indian Institute of Science)